Individual size variation and population stability in a seasonal environment: a discrete-time model and its calibration using grasshoppers.

Much recent literature is concerned with how variation among individuals (e.g., variability in their traits and fates) translates into higher-level (i.e., population and community) dynamics. Although several theoretical frameworks have been devised to deal with the effects of individual variation on population dynamics, there are very few reports of empirically based estimates of the sign and magnitude of these effects. Here we describe an analytical model for size-dependent, seasonal life cycles and evaluate the effect of individual size variation on population dynamics and stability. We demonstrate that the effect of size variation on the population net reproductive rate varies in both magnitude and sign, depending on season length. We calibrate our model with field data on size- and density-dependent growth and survival of the generalist grasshopper Melanoplus femurrubrum. Under deterministic dynamics (fixed season length), size variation impairs population stability, given naturally occurring densities. However, in the stochastic case, where season length exhibits yearly fluctuations, size variation reduces the variance in population growth rates, thus enhancing stability. This occurs because the effect of size variation on net reproductive rate is dependent on season length. We discuss several limitations of the current model and outline possible routes for future model development.